Market Intelligence

Market Access

Coverage intelligence, reimbursement analysis, market forces, and competitive positioning across the Mays Cancer Center oncology portfolio.

$1631.2B

Combined TAM

6

Active Molecules

10

Market Forces Tracked

9

Competitor Trials

Market Forces Analysis

Key regulatory, payer, competitive, scientific, and economic forces shaping the portfolio

⚖️
FDA RMAT Designation Accelerates 186RNL Pathway

regulatory · 2025–2029

high

Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation enables rolling review, priority review, and potential accelerated approval for 186RNL in recurrent GBM.

186RNL
⚖️
PROTAC Regulatory Framework Emerging

regulatory · 2025–2028

medium

FDA has granted multiple designations to targeted protein degraders, signaling willingness to evaluate PROTACs. Arvinas' ARV-471 (Phase 3) will set precedent for DT2216.

DT2216
U0001F4B3
CMS Radiopharmaceutical Reimbursement Expansion

payer · 2024–2030

high

CMS has established clear J-code and reimbursement pathways for Pluvicto. Growing acceptance of radiopharmaceuticals improves future coverage for 186RNL.

Pluvicto186RNL
⚔️
Navitoclax Phase 3 Results Imminent

competitive · 2025–2026

medium

AbbVie's navitoclax Phase 3 in myelofibrosis (TRANSFORM-1) could establish a BCL-XL inhibitor standard, potentially reducing DT2216's differentiation narrative.

DT2216
⚔️
GBM Therapeutic Landscape Intensifying

competitive · 2025–2030

medium

Multiple GBM therapies advancing (oncolytic viruses, CAR-T, IDH inhibitors). While none target the same mechanism as 186RNL, they compete for patients and investigator attention.

186RNLSG-GBM
U0001F52C
Theranostics Revolution Validates RLT Modality

scientific · 2024–2035

high

The rapid adoption of PSMA-directed theranostics validates the radiopharmaceutical modality, benefiting both Pluvicto commercially and 186RNL's development pathway.

Pluvicto186RNL
U0001F4B0
CPRIT Funding Renewal Cycle

economic · 2025–2028

high

Texas CPRIT funding continues to support Mays Cancer Center programs. Multiple active grants ($3.2M for Avasopasem, $900K for MBD6) with renewal opportunities.

DT2216Amuvatinib
U0001F4B3
Specialty Drug Prior Authorization Burden Increasing

payer · 2025–2030

medium

Payers increasingly requiring prior authorization for high-cost oncology therapies. Pluvicto already requires PA from most commercial plans; trend may extend to novel therapies.

Pluvicto
⚖️
Magrolimab Failure Reshapes CD47/SIRPα Landscape

regulatory · 2024–2028

medium

Gilead's discontinuation of magrolimab (anti-CD47) in AML due to safety concerns validates BSI-082's SIRPα-targeting approach that avoids RBC toxicity.

BSI-082
U0001F4B0
177Lu Supply Chain Stabilizing

economic · 2025–2027

medium

Novartis investment in Lu-177 production capacity ($300M+ in new facilities) expected to ease supply constraints that have limited Pluvicto patient throughput.

Pluvicto

Trial-to-Approval Pathway Intelligence

Estimated timelines and probability assessments for portfolio molecules

42%
Probability

DT2216

CTCL / PTCL · Phase 1/2

Est. 2030

Next Milestone

Phase 2 expansion cohort readout

12–18 months

Top Accelerator

FDA Fast Track + Orphan Drug designations

Top Risk

Novel PROTAC modality — no oncology regulatory precedent

55%
Probability

186RNL

Recurrent GBM · Phase 2

Est. 2029

Next Milestone

Phase 2 primary endpoint readout (OS)

6–12 months

Top Accelerator

FDA Fast Track + Orphan Drug + RMAT designations

Top Risk

Single-arm trial — may face regulatory scrutiny

30%
Probability

Sacituzumab Govitecan

Recurrent GBM · Phase 2

Est. 2031

Next Milestone

Phase 2 interim analysis

18–24 months

Top Accelerator

Proven ADC platform (FDA-approved in TNBC and UC)

Top Risk

BBB penetration uncertainty for ADC

25%
Probability

BSI-082

Advanced solid tumors · Phase 1a/1b

Est. 2032

Next Milestone

First patient dosed (Feb 2026) → dose escalation

24 months

Top Accelerator

SIRPα/CD47 axis validated by magrolimab data

Top Risk

First-in-class anti-SIRPα — no clinical precedent

92%
Probability

Pluvicto

mCRPC (pre-chemo) · Approved (label expansion)

Approved

Next Milestone

PSMAddition readout (mHSPC expansion)

Active

Top Accelerator

Only civilian center in South Texas

Top Risk

177Lu supply constraints

Portfolio Market Opportunity

Total addressable market across all therapeutic areas

DT2216

Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma (CTCL)

$1.2B
6.5% CAGRTarget 25% in relapsed/refractory segment

Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma (PTCL)

$800M
7.2% CAGRTarget 15% in relapsed/refractory segment

Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)

$5B
12% CAGRTarget 5% in venetoclax-resistant segment

Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC)

$2B
9% CAGRTarget 3% in relapsed/refractory segment (future)
186RNL

GBM Therapeutics

$3.2B
8.5% CAGRTarget 20% in recurrent GBM segment

Brain Tumor Radiotherapy

$1.8B
7.0% CAGRTarget 10% with novel CED-delivered radiopharmaceutical

Pediatric Brain Tumors

$800M
9.5% CAGRTarget 5% in recurrent pediatric CNS tumors (future)
Pluvicto

Radioligand Therapy (global)

$4B
25% CAGRPluvicto is market leader (~85% of RLT market in prostate cancer)

mCRPC (post-ARPI, post-taxane — VISION)

$2.5B
12% CAGR~35% market share in eligible population

mCRPC (post-ARPI, pre-chemo — PSMAfore)

$3.5B
18% CAGR~20% market share (growing rapidly post-label expansion)

mHSPC (potential — PSMAddition)

$8B
10% CAGRTarget 10% if PSMAddition positive (future)

Pluvicto Reimbursement Intelligence

The only commercially approved molecule — comprehensive payer and reimbursement analysis

J-Code & Pricing

J9055

J9055 (lutetium Lu 177 vipivotide tetraxetan)

Per Dose

$42,500

Full Course (6 cycles)

$255,000

Payer Mix
medicare65% of patients (mCRPC age demographics)
commercial25%
va8%
other2%
Site Requirements
  • Pluvicto REMS certification
  • Nuclear medicine suite with appropriate shielding
  • Authorized user (AU) with NRC radioactive materials license
  • Radiation safety officer on staff
  • Radioactive waste disposal capability
Prior Authorization

Most commercial payers require PA. Key requirements: PSMA PET/CT confirming PSMA positivity, documentation of prior ARPI failure, pathology confirming prostate adenocarcinoma, ECOG PS 0-2.

Coverage Policies

Medicare coverage determinations for portfolio therapies

Medicare National Coverage — Pluvicto for mCRPC
NCD
covered

J-Code: J9399 (unclassified antineoplastic) transitioning to J9055

Medicare covers Pluvicto for FDA-approved indications under Part B as a physician-administered drug. Reimbursement via hospital outpatient or freestanding nuclear medicine facility. ASP-based reimbursement with buy-and-bill model.

Palmetto GBA LCD — Radioligand Therapy for Prostate Cancer
LCD
covered

J-Code: J9055

MAC: Palmetto GBA (MAC JM)

Covers Pluvicto for PSMA-positive mCRPC per FDA labeling. Requires prior PSMA PET/CT demonstrating PSMA-positive disease. Documentation of prior ARPI therapy (and prior taxane for VISION indication) required.

Novitas Solutions LCD — Radioligand Therapy Coverage
LCD
covered

J-Code: J9055

MAC: Novitas Solutions (MAC JL/JH)

Covers Pluvicto for FDA-approved indications. Requires PSMA PET/CT within 90 days of treatment initiation. Site must be Pluvicto REMS-certified. Up to 6 cycles covered.